Canadian airlines have significantly reduced their flight schedules to the United States over the past year. Instead, they are increasing flight volumes to other international destinations, particularly the Caribbean and South America. This strategic pivot comes as passenger demand for cross-border travel continues to decline.
Key Takeaways
- Canada-US flight volumes dropped over 14% in Q4 last year.
- Airlines boosted Caribbean and South America flights by 36% in Q4 and 45% this quarter.
- Florida, California, and Nevada saw major capacity reductions.
- Domestic, European, and Asian routes also saw increases.
- Airlines anticipate further reductions in US transborder networks.
Reduced US Flight Capacity
Figures from aviation data firm Cirium show a clear trend. Among Canada’s five largest carriers — Air Canada, WestJet, Porter Airlines, Air Transat, and Flair Airlines — Canada-US flight volumes fell more than 14 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter. This decline marks a notable shift in airline strategy.
Key US states like Florida, California, and Nevada experienced some of the largest drops in capacity from Canadian carriers. Flights to Las Vegas, for example, were down by a third compared to the previous year. This reduction reflects a sustained change in traveler preferences.
Fact Check
First-quarter flight volumes for Arizona are scheduled to fall by over 20 percent year-over-year. For Florida, the projected decrease is nearly 19 percent.
Industry experts suggest this trend is not temporary. John Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University, noted that airlines had hoped for a rebound. "The airlines were hoping that this was just going to be a flash in the pan... that it would eventually settle back into a return to sun destinations by the time the fourth quarter rolled along," Gradek stated. He added, "That didn't happen. And the first quarter doesn’t look much brighter.”
Growth in Overseas Markets
As Canadians look beyond the US, airlines are rapidly expanding their networks elsewhere. Flight volumes to the Caribbean and South America saw significant increases. These routes grew by 36 percent last quarter and are projected to rise by 45 percent in the current quarter.
Air Canada has been at the forefront of this expansion, launching more than a dozen new routes and several new destinations. These include Rio de Janeiro, Guatemala City, and Cartagena, Colombia. WestJet also increased flights to Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic, jumping from 320 to 1,018 flights in the last quarter.
Market Context
Canadian flight volumes to Cancun, Mexico, increased by 35 percent last quarter. Central America saw nearly a third increase. For the current quarter, flights to the Bahamas are set to leap by 104 percent, Brazil by 36 percent, and Aruba by 28 percent.
Domestic flights and trips to Europe and Asia have also seen an uptick since 2024. Airlines are actively rejigging their networks to meet evolving passenger demand. "Canadians are moving and they're trying different destinations," Gradek observed.
Airline Perspectives and Future Outlook
Despite the downturn in US travel, airlines are managing the shift. Mark Galardo, Air Canada's chief commercial officer, described the decline in tourist travel to the US as "not catastrophic." He noted that Air Canada's US flight volumes have remained steady at about a 10 percent decline through most of last year and into 2026. "We see a plateau. The situation has not worsened," Galardo said.
"We see no indication that this trend will change in the foreseeable future, so we are anticipating further reductions to our transborder network in 2026," said WestJet spokeswoman Julia Kaiser.
The decrease in US-bound seats is substantial, amounting to nearly 850,000 seats in the first quarter alone, according to Cirium data. This indicates a long-term strategic adjustment rather than a temporary change.
Porter Airlines' Strategic Pivot
Porter Airlines, Canada's third-largest carrier, has also made a significant pivot. Andrew Pierce, Vice-President of Network Planning at Porter, stated that US trips accounted for over 40 percent of their flight volume a year ago. Today, this figure is just over a quarter.
In January 2025, Porter flew zero routes beyond Canada and the US. This month, they are operating approximately 500 flights to new international destinations. These include Cancun and Puerto Vallarta in Mexico, as well as Costa Rica and the Cayman Islands. Pierce commented, "We're new to a lot of that region of the world, but it's exactly the right timing for the demand."
Persistent Demand for Winter Travel
Canadians continue to show a strong appetite for winter air travel. Even with trips farther from home and potentially higher costs, the desire for sun destinations remains. Air Canada, for instance, has adjusted by swapping in smaller planes and lowering flight frequencies to airports in southern US states, while also dropping some routes entirely.
Demand for European leisure destinations is also growing. Galardo noted, "We're seeing a lot of demand growth into European leisure destinations." This trend has led to new routes to Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal, further diversifying Canadian travel options.
Cross-Border Travel
While Canadian travel to the US has declined, American air travel to Canada increased by more than six percent year-over-year to 448,000 in October, according to Statistics Canada.
Both Canadian and American residents still utilize each other's airports for layovers on flights to Europe and Asia. This helps keep planes largely full, even as direct tourist travel patterns shift. The overall picture suggests a dynamic and evolving North American air travel market.
